New Poker Goals

So instead of grinding out the SnG's for monthly income, I decided to put that on pause. I will come back to that later.

New goals are to still grind the SnG's for cash, but then to use the profits to grind the Step Tournaments.

I did some estimations and I figure for around $1350 I could win at least 1 Step 6 tournament package. If I win a step 6 tournament package then it would be a paid vacation for me and the wife to some other country - China, Philippines, Bahamas, Australia, etc.

I've been pretty successful with the step tournaments.

Here are my assumptions:

I should be able to take first or second place at a step 6 tournament 10% of the time. The other attempts at a step 6 tournament would result in other prizes - or losses - but not the big prize.

That means I need 10 Step 6 tournament tickets in order to win at least 1 big prize.

Here are the percentages I believe I can win at each of the step levels:

Step 1 - 75% = 180 Tickets needed for 134 Step 3 Tickets
Step 2 - 75% = 134 Tickets needed for 100 Step 3 Tickets
Step 3 - 50% = 100 Tickets Needed for 400 Step 4 Tickets
Step 4 - 50% = 50Tickets Needed for 100 Step 5 Tickets
Step 5 - 20% = 25Tickets Needed for 5 Step 6 Tickets
Step 6 - 20% = 5 Tickets Needed for 1 Big Prize

So that means I need to play 180 Step 1 tournaments to eventually win 1 Step 6 prize package.

$7.5 X 180 = $1350

If I give myself 6 months to win a step 6 prize, that means I need to play 494 step tournaments.

6 months equals 26 weeks - so that is 19 Step tournaments a week.

That is actually quite a lot!

Now grinding out SitNGo's is what is going to pay for the step tournaments. So I don't need to pay for all 494 step tournaments - just the original 180 step 1 tournaments.

I will dived the 180 Step tournaments equally among the 26 weeks - which means I need to pay for 7 Step 1 tournaments a week - which equals $52.50.

I will be playing both $5.50 & $11 SnG's - depending on how my variance is going. So lets assume I play just $11 SnG's and if I end up playing more $5.50's then it will take longer or I will need to play more at a time.

Assume a profit of 12% for $11 SitNGo's. That means I make on average $1.32 per game played.

So I need to divide $52.50 by $1.32 = ~40 tournaments a week.

I would have to play 40 $11 tournaments a week plus about 20 Step Tournaments a week.

That is 60 tournaments a week or 12 per day (playing 5 days a week).

That is theoretically possible - assuming I can maintain a 12% ROI and play 2 hour a day 5 days a week.

So in reality it may take 8-10 months to truly win one step 6 tournament package.

But I could also do better at the steps than I plan and win a step 6 even sooner than planned.

The idea is to save up 10 tickets at each step before trying that step level.

For example - once I get 10 Step 2 tickets, then I will grind the step 2 tournaments.

An additional caveat. This could cause this grind to take even longer.

Whenever I have the chance to play the Sunday Million on Poker Stars - I will use a step 4 ticket to do so.

Potentially that is once a week.

So based on my estimates, one in every 4 step 1 tickets will result in a step 4 ticket.

I am playing 20 Step tournaments a week - that means I will earn about five step 4 tournament tickets per week.

So this is acceptable.

The idea is one day I may get good enough to go deep in the Sunday Millions and win some serious cash.

In one year I think I may be able to win $5000 at least once in the Sunday Million and one Step 6 Big Prize.

So that is the goals.!