Monday, September 14, 2009

Trading Poker Stars FPP's for a $215 Sunday Million Ticket

I did some quick investigating on what to use my FPP's for. Keep in mind Poker Stars doesn't have a cash rakeback, but it is rumored that their VIP program rivals most rakebacks.

I must say I agree. For 13,500 FPP's you can purchase a Sunday Million Ticket, which is worth $215.

Divide $200 by 13500 and you are receiving $.0159 for each FPP.

I earn my FPP's currently by grinding STT SitNGo's. These numbers change based on your VIP status because you earn FPP's faster if you are Silver or Gold or Platinum.

Assuming I am playing the $11 SitNGos - 90 a week, I earn about 5640 FPP's a month. If I save them up and trade them for a direct entry ticket into the Sunday Million, I am getting about 24.8% rakeback.

The numbers are like this. I play 360 tournaments a month and earn Gold VIP. This is aggressive as I need to play 90 tournaments a week. That is 18 tables a day 5 days a week. Either I 9 table for two hours a day, 6 table for 3 hours a day, or play 6 days a week and sneak in 15 tables a day.

But I end up earning 15.66 Fpp's for each $11 tournament. At $.0159 per FPP X 15.66 = $.248994 rakeback per tournament. For Rakeback percentage you divide $0.248994 by the $1 entry fee. That is a simple calculation of almost a 25% rakeback.

My cash rakeback at Full Tilt Poker (FTP) is 27% - so that is darn close.

If I play the same amount of tournaments, 90 a week, but at the $22 level, I end up earning almost a 30% rakeback by trading in for the $215 Sunday Million Ticket.

Needless to say, that is a good rakeback.

Of course the deal can be even sweeter if you gamble with those Fpp's and trade them in for a satellite tournament for the Sunday Million. I haven't done those numbers, but they might be even better.

However, I prefer not to try to gamble into the Sunday Million. No need to get greedy and chance missing the tournament because you lost all the satellites. 25-30% rakeback is good enough for me.

And then imagine if you place ITM in one of those Sunday Millions - which is inevitable. I think a good player will place ITM in the Sunday Million 1/3 of the time. At the $11 level I can play the Sunday million 6 times a year, roughly every other month. At the $22 level I can play once a month.

ITM is not much - around $220 - basically getting your money back. But that is cash. That would be at least turning your FPP's into a cash rakeback.

But if you go deeper into the tournament, you could double the Rakeback into $530 cash or much much more.

So I am happy to discover this opportunity.

I currently have about 1900 FPP's. I have a chance of making Silver VIP this month (September). I have about 50% of the needed VIP points so far and the month is a couple days away from half over. If I stay on track I can make it and get an FPP multiplier.

The other alternative is you can use 500FPP's to play a 27 man sitngo. First place gets a ticket to the sunday million. Or I think it is around 2000 FPP's to play a 9 man Sit N Go for a Sunday Million.

It definitely is worth considering. I can play 6-7 tournaments and if I place 1st in one, I break even. If I win more than one, I am doubling my Sunday Million tickets. But, it is also easy to play 7 tournaments and not get the needed first place.

For STT SNG's, I place ITM 35-40% of the time. Of those that are ITM, first place is around 35%. So running those numbers I will, on average, win a first place less than 1 times out of 7.

I probably would be better off grinding the 27 Man 500 FPP satellites to the Sunday Million. I would have 27 tries to win first. I don't have statistics on the 27 man MTT's. So I don't know what my averages are. I suppose I would get those averages by grinding them for Sunday Million Satellites. All I know is in the last 5 years I have only won 1 of those Sunday Million Satellites.

I actually have a good record of ITM for 27 Man MTT's - but maybe 5-6 first places overall. But those were cash tournaments - not satellites.

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