Placed 2nd In A 9 Man SNG

Nothing too exciting. I did not have enough energy to 9 table $50NL and was in the mood to play a tournament.

So I played two 9 man SNG's. First one I lost...bad. Stupid loose playing.

Second one I got second. Almost got first but villian rivered my two pair with trips.

I also had a $50NL cash table going (just one) - at one point I was ahead $15...but by the end of the tournaments I was break even again.

Overall I made a profit of $7 for the night. WooHoo!

Perhaps tonight I can get some a thousand or so hands in.

Jays Pessimistic Economic Preditions - Late October 2009

This will be an off post.

Meaning this is not about Poker.

Let us start by stipulating that if I were really this smart, I would be rich by now - and I am not.

I am just a simple amateur observer.

My economic intuition and $2 will get you a cup of coffee - if it is worth even that much.

You have been fair warned.

Really this is about either making myself look ingeniously foresighted or really stupid.

Either way - it is fun to make predictions you have no control over and see if you were right.

I predicted San Diego real estate prices would crash up to 50% - at least two years before that actually occurred. It just made sense. So one brownie point for me!

I, however, did not foresee the stock market crashing 50%. That was news to me.

Now -- once the stock market did crash in September/October 2008 - later around Dow 8500 - I predicted it would break the current bottom of 7500 and hit 6500 . It dipped below 6500 but closed around 6550'ish. So I say good enough - another brownie point for me!

In March 2008 I predicted the Dow would eventually hit a new bottom at 5000.

Ouch!

Instead the Dow rallied to over 10,000.

Subtract one brownie point.

However - believe me - I am long term correct. The Dow will see a new bottom below 5000.

Think about it - would I risk the only brownie point I have left. lol. Okay...stupid question.

But still...I think by end of 2010 the Dow will sit below 5000 and the S&P below 500.

I've been pessimistic about our economy for a while. I want to update my predictions.

So here we go...let's roll the dice and see if papa gets a new pair of shoes!

Jays Predictions

1. Stock Market crash of 50% starting between October 2009 (now) and the middle of December.

I really expected a 10% correction by now - but I think early November may be when the crash starts. Hello Recovering Dollar!! -- bye bye Equities! :-(

We're talking 5000 Dow and 500 S&P by mid to late 2010.

2. San Diego Residential Real Estate crashes at least 30% more by Mid-2010.
Avg home price in San Diego hits around $175K.
(currently around $250K I think)

3. Silver and Gold crash with market but then shoot up in value.
Opportunity to buy around late November to late December.
Precious metals will certainly go back up because of a flight to security.
Silver will hit a low of around $12.
Silver will then recover and hit at least a high of $30 by June 2010. Gold will hit the high of at least $2000.

I hate to be the pessimist but sometimes reality requires it.
This is a classic bear market rally.
I would not be surprised if by the end of 2010 the Dow sits below 4000.

BTW

This pessimistic point of view is one of my strong reasons to grinding online poker. Grinding online poker may be the only job I can find if my predictions come true. NOW is the time to polish my poker skills - not when in the middle of a economic crisis.

I've contemplated for almost a year what I can do to prepare for what is yet to come - and really there is not much you can do without over- reacting. I am done with the days of stocking up food and ammo. The best skill set to have is the ability to react with a calm peaceful disposition - not one of fear. Working on that one.

Change is the name of the game for a while. I say you need to learn to bend with the wind or else you'll break your branches.

But reality is reality. Painting a rosy picture doesn't change the facts.

Optimism is very high these days in the news. We're supposedly out of the recession and into economic recovery.

Blah blah blah. Talk to me in June 2010. I'll happily admit I was wrong.

But....I want TWO brownie points if I am right!

The Weekend

Well I played a few hours over the weekend.
Multi-Tabling $50NL seems to only resulted in breaking even. Well according to poker tracker I am about $75 ahead - but it just feels break even. I think I am earning about $6 per hour.

I am beating $50NL - but just barely. There is higher variance, even with my nitty 8.2/6.2/2 stats. There is a lot more all-ins at $50NL. Those either push me out of the hand or cost me duckets. Of course I've made a lot of money calling those all-ins too. My previous post was a good example - where I made $52 in one hand when I made my pocket ten trips on the flop and opponent caught a third jack on the turn - but the pocket Jacks were on the table making my full house.

I notice when I play just one table at $50NL I can totally catch on to players patterns. I know who the fish are and I know who the sharks are. I have noticed there are only usually 1-2 fish and the rest are nitty sharks - like myself. Usually there is at least 1-2 TAGs with stats of 25/20/2 and those players seem to be the ones with triple buy-ins stacks.

Perhaps a looser starting hand strategy enables them to take advantage of more post flop play. I just know that going looser than 8-10% of starting hands increases my variance - which I am not ready to do just yet.

I have about 3000 hands logged at $50NL and the stats look good - very similar to $25NL.

I did take a test drive in $100NL yesterday - just one table. Within 5 minutes I won about $35. I should have left the table - but I wanted to continue playing. I ended up losing the $35 and about $25 more. LOL.

But really there was nothing at $100NL that went terribly wrong. I played my normal A game, but on the turn and river when I didn't catch or didn't have what I thought the best hand would be, I had to fold to aggression.

$100NL sharks are more aggressive.

The trend seems to be the higher the limit, the more confident the players, and the more aggression. This just means you need to either tighten your game and outplay them post flop or be very good at putting players on ranges and beating them with a stick when you know you have there range covered.

My bankroll spiked to $635 for a little bit last night after $100NL - then went back to $600.

I then played 3 Heads Up matches - $6.60's. I lost the first, won the second, and won the third. I played the same guy each time. I was the better player.

The plan was I wanted to win the $6 so I could use my winning to play a $6 tournament.

I then played a 6 Max $6.60 SNG where I placed 2nd and won $6. That was a fun tournament. I should post it here. I got some really good run of cards. I think in a 10 hand spread I got 6 trips on the flop. Amazing.

Big Hand At $25NL - $100+pot

Last night I played against a rock and won a big $100+ pot.

Rock was in early position and I was in middle or late position.

I called Rock's 3 bet raise. Rock bets the flop and I min. raised. The min raise was to trap opponent. Rock called the min raised. Rock checked the turn and I raised. Then the rock min raised me! lol. I knew I had him.

See the hand below.

[FYI - click on the Hand number link to see a bigger image of the table]

Poker Tracker October Monthly Results

Hello.

I am posting my first Poker Tracker 3 graph. This is my results, so far, for the month of October 2009. Keep in mind I started playing October 9th and have played 11 days this month.

I have played 19.4 Hours and 10,445 hands.

I played about 7185 hands at $25Nl and 3260 hands at $50 NL.

Here is the chart:

[Click Chart to see the large size]

New Ring Game Bankroll Strategy

So after almost 9000 hands I decided I can lower my bankroll needs to 15 Buy-Ins from 35. I may adjust this at $100NL depending on how variance goes with the higher aggression factor.

My standard is 9-Tables. So that is 9 Buy-Ins. I require 5-6 Buy-Ins additionally to cover normal session variance. I use the auto refill at Poker Stars so if my buy-In is $35, as soon as it slips below $35 - it refills it to $35 next hand.

So I need money in my account to cover that too.

Now - once my bankroll increase to 18 Buy-Ins I can choose to play up to 12 tables.

Keep in mind I do not buy-in for the full 100 Big Blinds. I buy-in for 68-70.

So this makes the following requirements for Bankroll for these limits:

$25NL = $17 X 15 = $255
$50NL = $35 X 15 = $525
$100NL = $70 X 15= $1050

As soon as I reach the minimum buy in for a level - I can move up. I move down if I lose around 5-7 buy-ins.

So my bankroll yesterday stood at $575. So I was able to play $50NL. I ended the day at $583.

This is an aggressive bankroll approach. But if successful then I will be playing $100NL after 20 logged hours - or 2-3 weeks @ 10 hours a week.

Of course you can break even or even lose through 20000 hands - so it could take longer.

My goals is to make 3BigBets/100 hands. At $50NL that is $3/100 hands. 9 Tabling that equals $27 per hour.

At $100NL I would be making $54 per hour.

It seems the difference between $25NL and $50NL is confidence and aggression. I imagine at $100NL it will be the same. All I have to do is tighten up a bit as I go up in levels. I also have to be patient and see who is playing Nitty aggressively and who is playing LAG.

I need to figure out if I can get Poker Tracker 3 to display on the smallest size tables on Poker Stars correctly.

I could really use those HUD stats! Unfortunately with 9 tables all the smallest size - the HUD covers my hole cards and other players. There must be a way.

I will research this today.

At $50NL, 9 tabling 40 hours a month - I can make Gold VIP at Poker Stars.

Once I hit $100NL I will consistently hit Platinum.

9 Tabled $50NL Last Night

So I 9 tabled $50 NL last night. What a ride! I either went all in or called all in at least 6 times in the two hours I played. It was crazy. There is more pushing, it seems, at $50NL.
My first hour I made $25. My second hour I lost $75. Ouch! I decided to play again and in less than 5 minutes I made $68. I then quickly called it a night with a total profit of $13.

My stats were very good over the 800 hands at $50NL. I still played roughly 9% of hands and won about 8% of them. My total aggression was 2.4. My VP$IP/PFR was 8.2/6.9. I went to showdown about 35% of the time when I played past the flop. I won about 55% of my showdowns.

Etc Etc Etc.

Basically I did just fine - people were just either outplaying me or I was outplaying them - and either way were ready to gamble.

If this sort of style of play continues I will make a lot of money at $50NL. I can adjust my ranges to opponents and not call All-IN's with Pocket AA against a KQ board. I did that last night and lost a Buy-In. But if people are willing to stack off on the flop with middle pair good kicker to two pair - when I have pocket KK or trips - I can make some money.

Usually people fold to my action - but half the time at $50NL they played into me.

My very first hand at my first $50NL table - I got pocket JJ - bet $2 - got one caller. Flop came a J 7 9 (or something) - I raised - 3/4 pot - opponent pushed - I called - Opponent had Q9o. LOL. That was a nice way to start $50NL.

I will continue playing $50NL.

$25NL Grind Status Update

Well I was crushing this limit and then the brakes hit. I had one negative session where I lost $11 and one where I lost $50.

Now consider that I am 12 tabling. So the $11 lost is less than a buy in and the $50 is about 3 buy ins. I am buying in for 70% of maximum - $17.

So all in all - those are no big deal losses. 75% of the time I just broke even.

So my bankroll is at $555. My stats are still great. I brought my A game the entire time.

I am winning about 2BB/100 hands or about $1 per 100 hands. I was at 5BB/100.

I have played about 10000 hands so far.

Overall - things are going very well. One day losing 3 buyins is not big deal when I was winning 3 buyins for 3-4 days.

I am 60 VPP's away from making Silver VPP on Poker Stars.

I've Been Grinding $25NL

I have found a home in $25NL. I've been grinding it for about 5 days now.

I started by playing 6 tables at a time and now I am up to 12 tables at a time.

Basically I am crushing it so far at 5BB/100 hands. That is 5 Big Bets per 100 hands. A big bet is two times the big blind. So for $25 NL, the blinds are $0.10/$0.25. The big blind being $0.25. So the big bet is $0.50.

I am making 5 X $0.50 per 100 hands. I am playing Full Ring and Fast tables. Fast tables basically give you less time to think and there is no checkbox option for Auto-Post blinds - meaning if you are not sitting out, you automatically post the blinds.

Fast tables average 80-120 hands per hour. I have seen 150 hands per hour too.

So figure 100 hands per hour as an average.

That means I am earning $2.50 per table per hour. $2.50 X 12 = $30 per hour

Wow!

Now I have only put it around 5200 hands. We'll see what my BB/100 Hands is at around 50,000 hands.

5 BB/100 Hands is definitely sustainable. It would mean I am crushing $25NL, but hey - I might be doing just that.

Another great thing is 12 tabling $25 NL is earning me 100 VPP's at Poker Stars per hour. Playing 10 hours per week puts me at around 4000 - which is solid Gold VIP level.

I finally installed Poker Tracker 3 on my laptop. It has been tracking all of my $25NL cash games. The numbers are impressive.

Unfortunately, I don't have the $ right now to upgrade the free trial - so I cannot publish graphs yet. As soon as I can, I will purchase the full version.

But basically my VP$IP/PFR/AF (Voluntary Puts $ In Pot%/ Pre Flop Raise%/Aggression Factor%) is 8.8/6.8/1.5
Those are very nitty rock numbers - which is exactly what I want. Those are great numbers IMHO.

Statistically I am winning about 47% of showdowns. Although at the end of every session of 12 tabling I check my stats on the table at poker stars and usually I am winning 70% of showdowns.

A good player wins at least 50% of showdowns.

So after 5000 hands - great numbers in poker tracker.

I have played 5 sessions of about an hour each. Yesterday was my first losing session - I lost $11.

The other 4 sessions I was winning about $30 per hour.

I look forward to posting more results in the coming days!

My Poker Weekend

This was a good weekend for poker.

I tested the new short stack strategy - in a couple ways - both ended in failure. I did play the two short stack strategies for well over 3000 hands.

One strategy was any two pairs and any Broadway from any position - all in pre-flop.

The other was any two pairs from any position - all in pre-flop.

The pairs and Broadway - I 6 tabled for two hours and won 48% of my showdowns. I ended up losing 4 buy-ins. If I had rakeback I may have either broke even or made a small profit.

The strategy of any two pairs was a total failure. I won 46% of my showdowns and lost 8 buy-ins.

So neither seemed to be profitable.

I will note that I earned a lot of FPP's and VPP's points with both strategies. The any two pairs was very easy to multi-table and I was playing up to 15 tables for a couple hours on that one.

15 tables was very intense!

Now....

After this short stack strategy - and losing a total of about $50 - I switched to my normal A game and hit the $25 NL. The goal was to play 6 tables at a time and try to earn 3 Big Bets (3BB) per hour per table.

I played for an hour and earned 6BB per hour per table. I literally was crushing the game and destroying the ranges of the other players.

I played another hour and repeated the same crushing game.

Wow.

I decided to play 9 tables. I played for two hours and once again just crushed the game.

All in all I earned $75 over 4 hours of $25 NL - playing 2 hours of 6 tabling and 2 hours of 9 tabling.

I played the following 20 Hands pre-flop:

EP

1010 - AA
AKs, AKo
AQs, AJs
KQs

MP - The Above Plus:

AQo, AJo
KJs

LP - The Above Plus:

A10s, A9s
KQo, K10s

My stats for all 4 hours of playing was:

Won At Showdown - 70% (WOW)
Played 9% of the time

Soooo....pretty amazing. I plan to continue playing 6 to 9 tables at $25NL Full Ring to see if this is a fluke or if I finally found the right strategy to win consistently - at least at $25NL.

I earned 6 Big Bets per hour per table for all four hours. That is twice what I was shooting for.

I played Fast Tables - which were averaging 80-100 hands per hour per table. So I played around 3000 hands.

So basically I was making $18 per hour at 6 tables and $27 per hour at 9 tables. Not bad at all for $25 NL.

So - I am over 1/2 way to Silver VIP on Pokerstars and still have 19 more days in the month to go.

I should make Silver VIP this month. If I get really lucky and can move up to $50NL I may even make Gold VIP. WooHoo!

9 Tabled Full Ring $10NL for 3 1/2 Hours

Well I have noticed lately a lot of short stacker's at the tables - all limits. These are players with less than 20 BB. Last night I decided to test the short stack theory - again.

What I noticed from watching these short stacker's the past few days or so is they push pre-flop with any two pair, decent Broadway, and suited connectors.

I did not fine tune my strategy last night, but was sort of developing it as I went. After 1500+ hands I know I need to figure out an ideal Pre-Flop All In range.

Basically I went all in around 120 times - winning 47% of the time. That is not good enough to win.

I also won about 200 hands without going to showdown.

Overall I lost about $8. Assuming my normal play would normally result in a winning session of + $12 you could then say I lost $20.

But let's stick with the losing of $8. That equals 4 buy-ins of $2.

So basically with my push range last night, which wasn't exactly consistent, I was at best break even.

Considering rakeback or FPP points - break even can be profitable.

I think had I tightened up my push ranges and considered positions more, I could have broken even or made a profit.

The goal is to win at least 3 Big Bets per hour per table on average.

The trick is to push enough that people call you with a loose range of cards. I cannot push with just premium hands (AA-JJ, AK, KQ) because people would figure that out and all I would get would be the blinds or beaten by a better pair.

Yet I need to keep my pushing range good enough to win over 50% of showdowns.

This is a difficult formula.

Last night I played 11% of starting hands. That turned out to be too loose. Or perhaps I need to pay more attention to what position I am pushing and what cards in that position. I also need to pay attention to other people's open bet ranges.

In my strategy there is no betting on the flop - or rarely. I am getting it all in on the pre-flop.

The theory is if I can establish a very simple push fold pre-flop strategy, then I can multi-table like a mad man. 20+ tables is not impossible.

I will be involved in about half the number of hands I would if I were playing my normal game - but the rake will be maxed out each time. I should make more FPP's with this strategy and if I were getting rakeback, I would earn more rakeback.

The big trick is winning over 50% of showdowns.

I also established another rule - once I have 50% profits at a table - I leave the table. In other words If my buy-in was $2 and I get to $3 - I leave the table.

This helps a lot since it gives me another way to come out in the positive besides winning over 50% of showdowns. Ideally I can win uncontested pots and leave enough tables with 50% profits that will overcome a less than 50% showdown result.

This is definitely a work in progress.

As soon as I strictly define my push ranges and see positive results over maybe 5000 hands or so - I will move up to the next level - $25NL

Off the top of my head I am thinking of the following push ranges:

Early Position

AA-1010, AK, AQ, KQ

Middle Position

77-99, A8 suited+, A10 off-suited+

Late Position

44-66
Suited: 910, J10, QJ, K10, KJ

The basic rules are

1. Open push with these cards in those positions. Roll ever Limpers .
In order to push over the top of another player - they need to be in my position or later. Otherwise I need to have cards in their position.

Example A - An early position player puts in 3 bets. I am in middle position. To push over the top I need cards in my Early Position range.

Example B - A middle position player opens with 3 bets. I am also in middle position with pushing cards - I can push all in here.

2. Pushing over open raises is ok. Pushing after someone else re-raises or they have pushed - not so OK. You need premium cards in there position range to push or call. Use best judgment without AA or KK.

I'll test this new strategy tonight at the 10NL tables.

Playing Cash Tables Again

I decided to starting playing cash games again. I am playing $25 NL FR. I have about 20 Buy-Ins - much lower than my 50 minimum standard - but I just couldn't stand to grind $10NL - seems like a waste of time.

I have only played about 3 hours of 6 tabling and I broke even.

I plan to try 9 tabling.

My goal is to make 3 Big Bets per hour per table. Big bet at $25 NL is $0.50 cents. So that is $1.50 per table per hour. 9 Tabling should average to about $13.50 per hour.

As soon as I hit $2500 I will then go to $50 NL.

I am seriously considering moving to Full Tilt Poker if I can consistently make money at the cash tables. The 27% rakeback equals about 1/3 of my total profit. That means I am missing out on a 33% increase in profit.

I know pokerstars has a great VIP program, but cash is king. The FTP rakeback could easily lessen the impact of my variance.

Well, I will update how the cash tables experiment goes.

Played $100NL Last Night - 5 Tabled

I took a look at my VPP status last night on Poker Stars. It was the last day of the month and I was short 286 VPP's for Silver VPP status. I had earned 1000 VPP's so far.

I thought to myself - maybe I could try to earn those points today. Last time I earned Silver VPP I was in the same circumstance - about 280 points short. Except last time I had 3 days to do it.

I did some math and figured if I 5 tabled $100NL Full Ring - I should be able to earn around 70 VPP's an hour. So I could play 4 hours and try to just break even.

So I did.

Well I started to at least.

After an hour I was up $100 and decided I would rather keep the $100 than risk losing it and making Silver VPP.

LOL.

See what variance does to ya!

Plus I did not really want to sit with my entire bankroll for another 3 hours. Sorry - but my risk was too great there just to make silver VPP.

But I played VERY TAG. I only played 8% of hands - basically AA-JJ and AK. If there were 2-3 limpers and I was in late position with As I would limp in too and try to catch a flush.

I won 2-3 very big pots with pocket AA and pocket KK. I won a good pot when I caught my flush on the turn. I also lost 1-2 small-medium pots when I chased with A10.

Overall it seemed a great strategy to wait for premium hands and play aggressively.

So my bankroll now sits at a nice $500.

I may try playing $10NL Full Ring cash games tonight - 6 tabling. Same strategy - only play premium hands. Limp in with As in late position with 2 + limpers in front of me. The discipline is to be careful with dangerous flops and resistance. So if I have pocket KK and an A comes on the flop - I will CB 1/2- full pot and if I meet resistance I have to fold. If that CB gets called - I will fire a second barrel on the turn. If that gets called - I will check the River and fold to a bet. At any point I get raised - I will fold.

I also have to be careful with trip setters. Top or Over pair is still just a one pair strength hand. Premium pocket pairs can be beat with the average winning hand in poker - 2 pairs. Trip setters love playing against premium pockets. And of course dangerous boards such as two suited boards or any two broadway or straight potentials - I have to tread very carefully.

But I definitely was playing scared at $100NL. I won't be nearly as scared at $10NL. I will have 50 Buy-Ins compared with 5 Buy-Ins. LOL - big difference.