I hosted my second home poker game

Hello Poker Fans.

I haven't played poker at all this month. WTF!?

Actually, I am been either very busy or sick.

I am on vacation for 11 days starting December 23rd, so maybe I can plug in some time at the online tables.

I've been doing a lot of charity work this month and just never really got the overwhelming desire to log in some hours at the tables. - Go figure.

Well, I did host a second home poker game at my apartment clubhouse. This time I hosted a tournament - no limit Texas Hold'em of course. That is the only way I play my friends.

There were 9 players, everyone got the option of 1 re-buy if they lost all their chips, and the game went on for 4 hours. That is a long time for a 9 player tournament!

You could re-buy even if it was heads up. We had one player re-buy when he went out in 4th place, which was the money bubble. Not a bad strategy since 4rd place would have paid $56. Did not work out for him though - but we appreciate the added dead money.

I made it heads up and went out in second place for a cool prize of $85. I never had to re-buy, which I am of course proud of. 5 out of 9 people did re-buy - which made the prize pool very nice.

The buy-in was $20 and the re-buy the same.

Of course I hosted, and though it was a potluck, I always go a little overboard to ensure we all have a great experience. I spent about $80 on snacks, beer, water, soda, etc. So really, if you minus my buy in, I made $65. But when you minus the hosting cost - the poker night cost me $15. I am totally cool with that.

I'll get better at this hosting.

Next time my plan is to charge everyone $8 and I'll take care of all the drinks, snacks, etc.

It'll save me money and then we won't have all the extra food at the end. Then if I actually make any money at the poker night, it will really be profit.

I am still Silver VIP until the end of the month - too bad I won't get to keep that for January. Too bad I did not rack up a bunch of FPP's with my 50% multiplier. I just did not get the desire this month to play online poker.

Shame I tell you. Shame.

Poker Grind Update

Well I had an interesting poker weekend. On Wednesday night I continued my winning streak by earning another $50. However, I played another session at midnight and lost about $100. Sigh.

I am up for the month of November about $6. LOL.

Today is the last day of November and if I get to play tonight - it will be interesting to see if I end the month in the positive or negative. You got to play to win and I am not going to skip tonight just so I can finish the month in the positive.

But I still may not get time to play tonight. We will see how it goes.

I am not worried about the $100 lost - it is about 3 buy-ins at my current level. ($35 Buy-Ins). That equals about two days profit. For $50NL my profit was at almost $400 and now it is back at around $300. Still just happy to be in the positive.

I have a long ways to go at $50NL. I need to get to a point where losing 3 buy-ins doesn't drastically change much. Losing $100 right now equals more than 10% of my bankroll. But more importantly because I only have about 10K hands at $50NL, it drastically changed my $50NL BB/100 hands statistic. It was at 3.5 and now is at 1.6. That is a huge difference!

In other news - I have almost 5000 FPP's. I earned about 1700 VPP's in the month of November. I did not play enough to make Gold - but I could have. I only played about 12 sessions this month.

But I have secured Silver VIP at Poker Stars until the end of December.

My goal for December is to make Gold VIP and to have a BB/100 at $50NL above 3. That is it. No monetary goals. The most important thing to me right now is that I am winning 3BB/100 hands consistently at $50NL.

Status of my Grind

Well I started November off in the red as I lost about $200 or so at $100NL. However, I have played only $50NL after that and I have been very solid. For November so far I have average 2.7 BB/100 hands over almost 10,000 hands. That is really great!

My dollar per hour is only around $11 but that is due to not playing a lot of tables at a time. I mostly average 4 tables at a time lately - about half the time I do 6 tables.

I made over $300 in $50NL this month so far.

Yesterday I tipped into the black. I will post the chart in December, but the entire month was trying to make up for that really bad run at $100NL. My monthly profit chart for November looks like a big smiley face. LOL.

Yesterday I sat down at four tables and within 10 minutes made $50. I have had 3-4 profitable sessions in a row and decided to just quit while I was ahead and log another winning session. Really I was hot and should have continued playing. I won 4 major hands in those ten minutes. My big pot was defending AQo in the big blind with a blind stealer. Villain 3 bet me to $1.5 and I raised it to $5. He called. The flop came a beautiful Q. I raised it, he called. The turn came a beautiful A. LOL. I raised it, he re-raised all-in - I called. The board has two Spades and he was chasing a flush draw with Jack Ten or something. LOL. Thanks for the donation. I won $30 in that hand - it was my first winning hand of the night too.

The other winning hands were me calling from the big blind with 69o and pairing both on the board. I re-raised it on the flop and got a caller. I put a 3/4 pot bet on the turn and he folded. Another hand I caught Top pair good kicker and played it aggressively.

Many times at $50NL my single session variance is 3 buy-ins. So it is entirely possible I could lose that $50 and continue to lose another buy-in or two and then perhaps catch up with a slight session profit for the night after a couple hours. I just did not feel like riding the roller coaster and decided to leave with a nice 1.5 buy-in winning session.

I do wonder though if I continued playing if I would have continued with my hot streak and perhaps won 5 buy-ins. I guess you have to play to find out huh.

Well today is the day before Thanksgiving and I am off for the next 4 days. The holidays brings a lot of fish and sharks. I plan to log in some hours over the next 4 days and see if I am a shark or a fish. LOL.

My bankroll is around $925 - an all time high for this current grind. This grind is now aging about 4 months or so.

I have about 17 days left on my poker tracker 3 free trial. I will need to upgrade it for $90 soon.

If I continue to increase my bankroll past $1200, I plan to withdraw $100. The idea is I have NEVER withdrawn money from Poker Stars - not one time in the 5+ years I have been playing there. wow. Kind of crazy when you think about it.

I figure there is some paperwork involved in withdrawing money and it is better to get that out of the way. In the coming months I will be moving up to $100NL - God save my soul - and will start withdrawing money on a weekly basis.

$100NL is scary with my bankroll. $50NL has had big fluctuations - about $30 up or down or roughly 1 buy-in variance. At $100NL that would be $100 up or down each session. But on a bad day I could fluctuate 3-5 buy-ins. I buy in for 70 Big Blinds or $70 at $100NL.

So I plan to ease my way into $100NL. I want $500 above my standard $50NL bankroll to give $100NL a chance. I am willing to lose that $500 before moving back down to $50NL. I figure that is 7 buy-ins at $100NL. If I lose 7 buy-ins then I am the fish getting eaten by the sharks and need more work.

But 7 buy-ins gives me some wiggle room for what I think is going to be a 2 buy-in normal variance. $100NL players are a little aggressive pre-flop and flop. This increases my variance even though I play TAG. I figure the quality of players is about the same as $50NL - just a little big more aggressive.

Anyways - I have had some 1-2 buy-in winning sessions at $100NL - but they have been plagued by some 3-5 buy-in losing sessions. Overall I seem to break even or be losing at $100NL. But - I only have played sporadically.

When I put $500 into the $100NL move up - I should be able to determine if I have the skill set to make the move to $100NL permanent like I am at $50NL.

My big goal is to grind $200NL. Eventually, maybe next year, I want to grind $400NL.

I would like to be able to play 4 tables at a time at $400NL. If successful at 2Big Bets per 100 hands, assuming 50 hands per hour per table - I could make 32 per hour 4-Tabling $400NL. That is respectable! If I play 5 hours per day, 5 days per week - that is $160 per day and $800 per week or $3200 per month. That is closing the distance to what I make at my current job.

So anyways - those are the goals.

I also plan to continue playing tournaments - mostly as a side thing. Cash games is where the money is. But large field MTT tournaments is where the BIG money is and where the recognition is. If I get good enough to win a big tournament - I will get to travel the world playing poker and meet the big players. One day I may be on TV at some big poker game.

Hey - this stuff is not even far fetched. Really it is just a matter of time. My poker dreams have a good chance of turning into reality.

Well anyway - that is what this poker blog is all for. One day I will re-read this and see how far I have come.

Cheers Everyone! Happy Thanksgiving!

Hopefully I will have a great Thanksgiving poker weekend!

Barona Casino - Played my first live casino tournament

I've played a few live tournaments at friends houses. I am hosting my first tournament in a couple weeks.

But on Saturday I played in my first casino tournament. It was $25 + $5 buyin. There were 56 players spread out over 6 tables. Blinds increased every 15 minutes starting at $25/50. Starting chips were $2200.

When it was down to 3 tables I was hovering around 8 big blinds in the small blind. I figured I needed to make a move or I would be blinded out when the blinds increased. I had A5s and it folded to me. I raised it 3 bets. The big blind re-raised me all in. DOH! I had him covered with two big blinds left over.

The big blind was an old Asian guy - don't take this the wrong way, but Old Asian guys are to be feared at the casinos. They are usually good players. Not sure why - but they are good gamblers most times.

So I figured I was pot committed so I called him. He had AK. I hit my Ace, but obviously that did me no good.

That left me with two big blinds.

We then went on break for ten minutes.

When we came back me and one other person were the short-stack with two chips. I folded until I was on the button. I got dealt AQs and put them all in. I got 3 callers. DOH!

I would have been happy with stealing the blinds or getting heads up. Not too happy with a four way pot.

Luckily I hit trips and immediately became the chip leader. Wow.

From short-stack to chip leader.

I managed to make it to the final table. Everyone at the final table got paid.

I was a short-stack in no time with the blinds increasing.

Luckily other two players got taken out before I did.

I pushed all in once and actually stole the blinds.

My last hand I pushed all in and got one caller - the other short-stack at the table. I had Ax to his 58s. He hit is 8 on the river! Doh again!

All in all I was very happy with my tournament. I played TAG the whole time.

I made $68 going out in 7th place. I tipped the dealer $10...in retrospect I think I should have only tipped (Prize-Buy-In) X 10% = $3.8. I gave him over 26% of my profits!

Such a rookie.

I also played a couple hours at the $1/$2 cash table. Maximum buy-in was 50 Big Blinds or $100.

I did fine - very TAG. I gained lots of respect at the table. Most hands I raised or re-raised pre flop got me to heads up. If I bet the flop again, it always got a fold. It seemed I only was playing 10% or less of the time.

I walked away with $12. I had a couple big pots and tipped the dealer $10.

Moral of the story - I tipped almost half of my profits away.

The way I see it - if I have to deal with variance, why shouldn't the dealers? Next time I won't be tipping based on my winning a big pot. I may win $80 and lose it the next hand.

Counting my $10 to tips to the dealers - I made $22 or 5.5 Big Bets. I played for 2.5 hours so that equals 2.2 Big Bets per hour. That is decent for my first run at the cash tables.

I just need to work out my tipping strategy. If I triple or quadruple my stack in a single pot at $1/$2 NL, then I might tip accordingly - but if I just add 25% to my stake in a good pot - that is not a good reason to tip the dealer.

I need to work on this because those tips equaled half my profits!

I played a $5.50 Rebuy MTT

I played a $5.50 rebuy MTT.

You could rebuy twice and after the rebuy you could do one add on.

The starting chip count was 2500. Each rebuy was 2500. The add on was also 2500.

I did very well in this MTT tournament.

I, once again, outlasted 81% of all players.

There was 804 players. I went out in 150th place.

This tournament had a guarantee of $4000, but with all the rebuys and add-ons, it was $12,000 prize pool.

I, once again was within 15 minutes of ITM when I went out.

For this MTT, that is like going out on the bubble.

I lost A5s against AKo.

I would liked to have placed ITM...but I still think I did very well.

I played in the BIGgest Sunday Million on PS ever

Well the Sunday Million on Poker Stars turned out to be the biggest Sunday Million ever - in both terms of players and prize pool.

18,283 players

$3,656,600 Prize Pool

I did very well - but not well enough for ITM.

I played for 3 hours 45 minutes and outlasted 81% of all players.

I finished 3624th out of 18283.

I was within 15 minutes of being ITM. So all considered...for a MTT....that is pretty much going out on the bubble.

I would have liked to placed ITM...but over all I am happy with my results.

I will Play The Sunday Million This Weekend

Pokerstars is adding a MILLION dollars to the already guarantee of 1.5 million - so $2.5 Million guarantee. That extra million bucks doesn't raise the cost of the tournament.

I have been saving my Step 4 ticket for a Sunday Million and apparently there is no better opportunity to use it than this!

I believe ITM will start around $400 ish.

Should be a fun day.

A normal Sunday Million has around 8000 players - but I could see this one doubling to 16,000 - which would make the prize pool around 3.2 Million. Amazing.

Great Sunday Million Final Table

This is for November 8th, 2009

The winner goes from small stack of 4 million chips to the winner - getting amazing hands in great spots.

The final hand really grandstands how lucky this guy was at this final table.


Watch Online Poker Show: Sunday Million - November 8th, 2009 on PokerStars.tv

I Already Made Silver VIP At Pokerstars!

Last night I made about 180+ VPP points and made Silver VIP. I am silver VIP through December 31st, 2009.

I need another 1750 or so VPP's to make Gold. The way things are going, I should make Gold this month.

$50NL has been frustrating lately. I am either breaking even or losing 1-2 buyins each session. Last night I played about 3 hours - 4 tabling. I must have been involved in at least 10-12 ALL IN hands. Half I won, half I lost. Well - perhaps more lost than won because I ended the night down 1.5 buy-ins or -$50.

No worries though. My stats are great - winning more than 60% of showdowns. Only going to showdown around 25-30%. Playing nitty rock.

I am blind stealing successfully around 25-30% of the time.

Sometimes that is how it goes.

$50NL definitely has more ALL IN hands than $25NL.

But at least I am winning almost as many as I am losing.

When I can win around 75% of my ALL IN hands - then I will conquer $50NL.

There is a leak some where's in my game.

Overall Update On Poker Grinding

In the first 5 days of November I have accrued over 700 VPP's on PokerStars. That is over half way to Silver VPP. If this continues I should make Gold VIP in November.

I am saving up my Poker Stars FPP's too. Currently I have around 3500. I selfishly want to trade about 700 FPP's in for a pokerstars hat or perhaps $1200 for a PokerStars Polo shirt.

I just feel the need to get some Poker Stars gear. lol.

So far I have resisted the urge to spend my points on a hat or polo shirt.

Right now I am into building up my Poker Stars stuff.

I have 1 Step 4 Ticket that can be used for a Sunday Million ticket or any other $215 tournament entry.

I could use my FPP's to grind the Step Tournaments. I figure every 4 Step 1 tournaments should equal 1 step 4 ticket - on average. Step 1 tickets cost 500FPP's - so right now I could play 7 Step 1 tournaments. So that is, in theory, almost enough for 2 more step 4 tickets.

On the other hand I am still developing my cash table grind. I am so close to consistently making money grinding the cash tables that I can smell it.

But it keeps eluding me.

Actually, minus a couple very bad runs in $100NL - where I was playing above my bankroll - I am making money grinding cash tables. But I am not making as much as I want to make.

I am looking to make 3BB/100 hands. That is 3 Big Bets per 100 hands.

Ignoring my $100NL stats - I am very close.

$25NL is at 2.03BB/100 hands after 7,185 Hands.

$50NL is at 2.67BB/100 hands after 6,166 Hands.

My goal is 3BB/100 - and I am still fine tuning my strategy.

I am only playing about 8% of all preflop hands. My VP$IP/PFR/AF is 8.85/6.48/2.22. Those are very good winning stats. This is for 13,868 hands.

For just $25NL and $50NL I am averaging 458 hands per hour and 2.35BB/100 hands. So for $50NL that breaks down to $10.73 per hour.

I am guessing I must be averaging about 70 hands per hour per table - since I am playing Fast tables (Full Ring). That means I am averaging 6-Tabling.

Many of my estimates of how much I can make per hour grinding cash tables was based on 3BB per hour - not per 100 hands. That does make a big difference.

Now I believe I can comfortably grind 9 tables at a time. So I can get my $/Hour to a decent rate.

If I am playing fast tables and can do 70 hands per hour per table - that is 70% of 100 hands per hour. So I would earn 70% of 3BB - which is 2.1BB/Hour.

So...
6 tabling $50NL = $12.60 per hour
9 Tabling $50NL = $18.90 per hour

6 tabling $100NL = $25.20 per hour
9 Tabling $100NL = $37.80 per hour

Those are not bad numbers.

6 Tabling $100NL is $25 an hour. I can live with that.

If I can continue making 3BB/100 at $200NL while 6 tabling - that would be a cool $50 an hour.

Roller Coaster Night

I am testing some new strategies. This resulted in a roller coaster of a night.

I learned some new ways to customize my Poker Tracker. That is the good news.

But I was also trying to practice my 3 betting blind raisers. Did not go too well as I lost a buy in. I had Q10s in the big blind and the villian in the cutoff had pocket JJ - I caught nada and Villian caught a flush.

I should have noticed Villian was a 33/6/67 LAG player - and not someone you probably want to 3 bet light.

4bet shoving after his preflop call and raise on the flop also probably was not a good idea.

Hey - this is called paying for experience!

I continued my blind stealing and that went pretty successful.

So the good news is one of my last hands I won a big pot that totally made up for the earlier losses.

I ended the night $1 ahead - woohoo!

See the roller coaster chart below:

(You can click on chart to see a bigger image)

King High Flush Dethroned! - I win $73.80 Pot

Battle Of The Blinds!

Small blind - Villian

Big Blind - Hero (That is me!)

It doesn't get much better than this.

I flopped the nut flush. Villian flopped the king high 4-to-a-flush draw and completed his flush on the river.

I overbet the river hoping Villian would figure me for a lower flush. It worked.

Poker Tracker October Results Chart

My first full month of using PokerTracker. I want to make this a monthly post.

Below is a graph of how the month went.

**You can click on any image to see it full screen**

Left is dollars won or lost and bottom is how many hands. It starts at zero and graphs how well I did over the thousands of hands through the month.

OCTOBER 2009



November started out very rough when I lost $280 at $100NL. In one night - about 3 hours - I lost 6-7 buyins. I recovered all but 4 buy ins. But that is a lot of dough at $100NL.

**My buy-in is not the standard 100BB (Big Blinds). I buy in for 68-70 Big Blinds.**

I was not happy!

See the graph below:

**You can click on any image to see it full screen**

Left is dollars won or lost and bottom is how many hands. It starts at zero and graphs how well I did over the thousands of hands through the month.

November 2009



So I have played a lot of poker in the first 4 days of November. Currently I am in the negative $113.55 for November. I have plenty of time to make that up and turn it to a profit before the end of the month.

I made a profit of $92.65 in the month of October.

I am learning a lot. I am fine tuning my playing style and strategy. I think my core strategy is very good. I am winning over 50% of the hands I go to show down with. My stats are very nitty rock - which is what I am aiming for.

I think I am losing the most money on big pots I lose. I should be making a lot more money per hour since I am 6 tabling.

We'll see how the numbers average out at 100,000 hands though.

Today I made about $90 - which is a start on bouncing back from that $280 loss. Last night I made about $12.

Overall though, I am only down $20.90 over 13,868 hands.

Below shows how I am doing overall. This is a wealth of information. Mainly it shows how much money I am making or losing.



Below is another stat. It tells you how tight I am playing and defines me as a player.



The two things I want to work on the most right now is stealing the blinds more and lowering my fold to 3 bet percentage.

I am folding to a 3bet almost 90% of the time. That is bad. Many good players pay attention to this percentage and can make money off me by 3betting me light because they know 90% of the time I will fold. Not good.

There have been some hands I really felt I had the best hand...but they 3bet my raise on the turn and I folded. Those scenarios make me wonder if they were just make money off my 3bet percentage.

I know how to steal blinds and I have already started incorporating this into my strategy. Basic rule is you should be stealing the blinds at least 30% of the time or you are leaving money on the table.

So my blind stealing strategy is simple. If I am two positions or less to the blinds, usually position the hijack or the button position - I will attempt to steal the blinds with the following:

Any Ax
Any Kx
Any two broadway (10,J,Q,K,A)
Any pocket pair

1. Stealing is only if you are opening the pot. If someone already open raised - that is not a pot stealing opportunity. If there is one limper - it is up to my discretion - sometimes I will steal the pot and add a big blind to the steal for the limper.

2. If I am re-raised when stealing - I will fold unless I have a real hand.

3. If I get called in my blind steal - and there is only one caller - I will bet the flop regardless. If I get raised on the flop - and I did not catch anything - I fold.
If I get called on the flop - the turn is basically check fold.

4. Big rule is you do not continuation bet (CB) a flop with more than one opponent - unless you catch something of course. Even then - beware of trip setters.

Anyways - blind stealing has been very successful so far.

I have not developed a strategy for lowering my fold to 3bet percentage yet.

Pocket Rockets Wins $110+ Pot

Everyone loves getting pocket rockets - especially on the button. But in reality they only win, on average, 17% of the time.

Did you know that?

So in celebration of one of those 17% of the times - here is a great one.

By the way - Villian had a Kc 10h - got to love PokerTracker showing mucked hands : 0-)

So Villian caught the nuts on the flop with a made straight. I turned my pocket rockets into trips on the flop. Villian would have had my lunch had the turn not paired the flop Queen giving me a full house.

When the third diamond fell on the river and I over bet all-in - I am guessing villian thought I was bluffing a flush draw - I am sure he was disappointed when I turned over the BIGger nut full house.

Won $70 Pot With BIGger Flush

This was a beautiful hand from the small blind. AQs and my preflop bet looked like a steal. Villian had low gapped suited and felt like calling me.

The flop gave villian a four to a flush (Two hearts) and put an A offsuit on the board. Villian probably assumed I had an Ax and he had position on me. In reality I flopped Top pair and the nuts flush draw.

I bet the flop...looked like a CB. He called

Turn comes a beatiful completion of the flush. I threw the exact same bet as the previous two streets - looking very much like a CB and testing the flush on the board.

This time Villian raises the bet - a little over a 3 bet.

I call with the plan of shoving on the river to look like I am either bluffing or calling his bluff.

I assumed Villian either couldn't fold or thought he was dealing with a bluffing fish - even though my stats over 80 hands for this table was like 4/4/4....A NITTY ROCK.

Villian called and was not happy.

The very next hand left him with $2.5 and I was in the button - I raised it.

I had A8o and Villian raised it all in ($3.50). I called. Heads up...Villian had A7.

LOL....took his last few dollars.

Here is the hand:

Placed 2nd In A 9 Man SNG

Nothing too exciting. I did not have enough energy to 9 table $50NL and was in the mood to play a tournament.

So I played two 9 man SNG's. First one I lost...bad. Stupid loose playing.

Second one I got second. Almost got first but villian rivered my two pair with trips.

I also had a $50NL cash table going (just one) - at one point I was ahead $15...but by the end of the tournaments I was break even again.

Overall I made a profit of $7 for the night. WooHoo!

Perhaps tonight I can get some a thousand or so hands in.

Jays Pessimistic Economic Preditions - Late October 2009

This will be an off post.

Meaning this is not about Poker.

Let us start by stipulating that if I were really this smart, I would be rich by now - and I am not.

I am just a simple amateur observer.

My economic intuition and $2 will get you a cup of coffee - if it is worth even that much.

You have been fair warned.

Really this is about either making myself look ingeniously foresighted or really stupid.

Either way - it is fun to make predictions you have no control over and see if you were right.

I predicted San Diego real estate prices would crash up to 50% - at least two years before that actually occurred. It just made sense. So one brownie point for me!

I, however, did not foresee the stock market crashing 50%. That was news to me.

Now -- once the stock market did crash in September/October 2008 - later around Dow 8500 - I predicted it would break the current bottom of 7500 and hit 6500 . It dipped below 6500 but closed around 6550'ish. So I say good enough - another brownie point for me!

In March 2008 I predicted the Dow would eventually hit a new bottom at 5000.

Ouch!

Instead the Dow rallied to over 10,000.

Subtract one brownie point.

However - believe me - I am long term correct. The Dow will see a new bottom below 5000.

Think about it - would I risk the only brownie point I have left. lol. Okay...stupid question.

But still...I think by end of 2010 the Dow will sit below 5000 and the S&P below 500.

I've been pessimistic about our economy for a while. I want to update my predictions.

So here we go...let's roll the dice and see if papa gets a new pair of shoes!

Jays Predictions

1. Stock Market crash of 50% starting between October 2009 (now) and the middle of December.

I really expected a 10% correction by now - but I think early November may be when the crash starts. Hello Recovering Dollar!! -- bye bye Equities! :-(

We're talking 5000 Dow and 500 S&P by mid to late 2010.

2. San Diego Residential Real Estate crashes at least 30% more by Mid-2010.
Avg home price in San Diego hits around $175K.
(currently around $250K I think)

3. Silver and Gold crash with market but then shoot up in value.
Opportunity to buy around late November to late December.
Precious metals will certainly go back up because of a flight to security.
Silver will hit a low of around $12.
Silver will then recover and hit at least a high of $30 by June 2010. Gold will hit the high of at least $2000.

I hate to be the pessimist but sometimes reality requires it.
This is a classic bear market rally.
I would not be surprised if by the end of 2010 the Dow sits below 4000.

BTW

This pessimistic point of view is one of my strong reasons to grinding online poker. Grinding online poker may be the only job I can find if my predictions come true. NOW is the time to polish my poker skills - not when in the middle of a economic crisis.

I've contemplated for almost a year what I can do to prepare for what is yet to come - and really there is not much you can do without over- reacting. I am done with the days of stocking up food and ammo. The best skill set to have is the ability to react with a calm peaceful disposition - not one of fear. Working on that one.

Change is the name of the game for a while. I say you need to learn to bend with the wind or else you'll break your branches.

But reality is reality. Painting a rosy picture doesn't change the facts.

Optimism is very high these days in the news. We're supposedly out of the recession and into economic recovery.

Blah blah blah. Talk to me in June 2010. I'll happily admit I was wrong.

But....I want TWO brownie points if I am right!

The Weekend

Well I played a few hours over the weekend.
Multi-Tabling $50NL seems to only resulted in breaking even. Well according to poker tracker I am about $75 ahead - but it just feels break even. I think I am earning about $6 per hour.

I am beating $50NL - but just barely. There is higher variance, even with my nitty 8.2/6.2/2 stats. There is a lot more all-ins at $50NL. Those either push me out of the hand or cost me duckets. Of course I've made a lot of money calling those all-ins too. My previous post was a good example - where I made $52 in one hand when I made my pocket ten trips on the flop and opponent caught a third jack on the turn - but the pocket Jacks were on the table making my full house.

I notice when I play just one table at $50NL I can totally catch on to players patterns. I know who the fish are and I know who the sharks are. I have noticed there are only usually 1-2 fish and the rest are nitty sharks - like myself. Usually there is at least 1-2 TAGs with stats of 25/20/2 and those players seem to be the ones with triple buy-ins stacks.

Perhaps a looser starting hand strategy enables them to take advantage of more post flop play. I just know that going looser than 8-10% of starting hands increases my variance - which I am not ready to do just yet.

I have about 3000 hands logged at $50NL and the stats look good - very similar to $25NL.

I did take a test drive in $100NL yesterday - just one table. Within 5 minutes I won about $35. I should have left the table - but I wanted to continue playing. I ended up losing the $35 and about $25 more. LOL.

But really there was nothing at $100NL that went terribly wrong. I played my normal A game, but on the turn and river when I didn't catch or didn't have what I thought the best hand would be, I had to fold to aggression.

$100NL sharks are more aggressive.

The trend seems to be the higher the limit, the more confident the players, and the more aggression. This just means you need to either tighten your game and outplay them post flop or be very good at putting players on ranges and beating them with a stick when you know you have there range covered.

My bankroll spiked to $635 for a little bit last night after $100NL - then went back to $600.

I then played 3 Heads Up matches - $6.60's. I lost the first, won the second, and won the third. I played the same guy each time. I was the better player.

The plan was I wanted to win the $6 so I could use my winning to play a $6 tournament.

I then played a 6 Max $6.60 SNG where I placed 2nd and won $6. That was a fun tournament. I should post it here. I got some really good run of cards. I think in a 10 hand spread I got 6 trips on the flop. Amazing.

Big Hand At $25NL - $100+pot

Last night I played against a rock and won a big $100+ pot.

Rock was in early position and I was in middle or late position.

I called Rock's 3 bet raise. Rock bets the flop and I min. raised. The min raise was to trap opponent. Rock called the min raised. Rock checked the turn and I raised. Then the rock min raised me! lol. I knew I had him.

See the hand below.

[FYI - click on the Hand number link to see a bigger image of the table]

Poker Tracker October Monthly Results

Hello.

I am posting my first Poker Tracker 3 graph. This is my results, so far, for the month of October 2009. Keep in mind I started playing October 9th and have played 11 days this month.

I have played 19.4 Hours and 10,445 hands.

I played about 7185 hands at $25Nl and 3260 hands at $50 NL.

Here is the chart:

[Click Chart to see the large size]

New Ring Game Bankroll Strategy

So after almost 9000 hands I decided I can lower my bankroll needs to 15 Buy-Ins from 35. I may adjust this at $100NL depending on how variance goes with the higher aggression factor.

My standard is 9-Tables. So that is 9 Buy-Ins. I require 5-6 Buy-Ins additionally to cover normal session variance. I use the auto refill at Poker Stars so if my buy-In is $35, as soon as it slips below $35 - it refills it to $35 next hand.

So I need money in my account to cover that too.

Now - once my bankroll increase to 18 Buy-Ins I can choose to play up to 12 tables.

Keep in mind I do not buy-in for the full 100 Big Blinds. I buy-in for 68-70.

So this makes the following requirements for Bankroll for these limits:

$25NL = $17 X 15 = $255
$50NL = $35 X 15 = $525
$100NL = $70 X 15= $1050

As soon as I reach the minimum buy in for a level - I can move up. I move down if I lose around 5-7 buy-ins.

So my bankroll yesterday stood at $575. So I was able to play $50NL. I ended the day at $583.

This is an aggressive bankroll approach. But if successful then I will be playing $100NL after 20 logged hours - or 2-3 weeks @ 10 hours a week.

Of course you can break even or even lose through 20000 hands - so it could take longer.

My goals is to make 3BigBets/100 hands. At $50NL that is $3/100 hands. 9 Tabling that equals $27 per hour.

At $100NL I would be making $54 per hour.

It seems the difference between $25NL and $50NL is confidence and aggression. I imagine at $100NL it will be the same. All I have to do is tighten up a bit as I go up in levels. I also have to be patient and see who is playing Nitty aggressively and who is playing LAG.

I need to figure out if I can get Poker Tracker 3 to display on the smallest size tables on Poker Stars correctly.

I could really use those HUD stats! Unfortunately with 9 tables all the smallest size - the HUD covers my hole cards and other players. There must be a way.

I will research this today.

At $50NL, 9 tabling 40 hours a month - I can make Gold VIP at Poker Stars.

Once I hit $100NL I will consistently hit Platinum.

9 Tabled $50NL Last Night

So I 9 tabled $50 NL last night. What a ride! I either went all in or called all in at least 6 times in the two hours I played. It was crazy. There is more pushing, it seems, at $50NL.
My first hour I made $25. My second hour I lost $75. Ouch! I decided to play again and in less than 5 minutes I made $68. I then quickly called it a night with a total profit of $13.

My stats were very good over the 800 hands at $50NL. I still played roughly 9% of hands and won about 8% of them. My total aggression was 2.4. My VP$IP/PFR was 8.2/6.9. I went to showdown about 35% of the time when I played past the flop. I won about 55% of my showdowns.

Etc Etc Etc.

Basically I did just fine - people were just either outplaying me or I was outplaying them - and either way were ready to gamble.

If this sort of style of play continues I will make a lot of money at $50NL. I can adjust my ranges to opponents and not call All-IN's with Pocket AA against a KQ board. I did that last night and lost a Buy-In. But if people are willing to stack off on the flop with middle pair good kicker to two pair - when I have pocket KK or trips - I can make some money.

Usually people fold to my action - but half the time at $50NL they played into me.

My very first hand at my first $50NL table - I got pocket JJ - bet $2 - got one caller. Flop came a J 7 9 (or something) - I raised - 3/4 pot - opponent pushed - I called - Opponent had Q9o. LOL. That was a nice way to start $50NL.

I will continue playing $50NL.

$25NL Grind Status Update

Well I was crushing this limit and then the brakes hit. I had one negative session where I lost $11 and one where I lost $50.

Now consider that I am 12 tabling. So the $11 lost is less than a buy in and the $50 is about 3 buy ins. I am buying in for 70% of maximum - $17.

So all in all - those are no big deal losses. 75% of the time I just broke even.

So my bankroll is at $555. My stats are still great. I brought my A game the entire time.

I am winning about 2BB/100 hands or about $1 per 100 hands. I was at 5BB/100.

I have played about 10000 hands so far.

Overall - things are going very well. One day losing 3 buyins is not big deal when I was winning 3 buyins for 3-4 days.

I am 60 VPP's away from making Silver VPP on Poker Stars.

I've Been Grinding $25NL

I have found a home in $25NL. I've been grinding it for about 5 days now.

I started by playing 6 tables at a time and now I am up to 12 tables at a time.

Basically I am crushing it so far at 5BB/100 hands. That is 5 Big Bets per 100 hands. A big bet is two times the big blind. So for $25 NL, the blinds are $0.10/$0.25. The big blind being $0.25. So the big bet is $0.50.

I am making 5 X $0.50 per 100 hands. I am playing Full Ring and Fast tables. Fast tables basically give you less time to think and there is no checkbox option for Auto-Post blinds - meaning if you are not sitting out, you automatically post the blinds.

Fast tables average 80-120 hands per hour. I have seen 150 hands per hour too.

So figure 100 hands per hour as an average.

That means I am earning $2.50 per table per hour. $2.50 X 12 = $30 per hour

Wow!

Now I have only put it around 5200 hands. We'll see what my BB/100 Hands is at around 50,000 hands.

5 BB/100 Hands is definitely sustainable. It would mean I am crushing $25NL, but hey - I might be doing just that.

Another great thing is 12 tabling $25 NL is earning me 100 VPP's at Poker Stars per hour. Playing 10 hours per week puts me at around 4000 - which is solid Gold VIP level.

I finally installed Poker Tracker 3 on my laptop. It has been tracking all of my $25NL cash games. The numbers are impressive.

Unfortunately, I don't have the $ right now to upgrade the free trial - so I cannot publish graphs yet. As soon as I can, I will purchase the full version.

But basically my VP$IP/PFR/AF (Voluntary Puts $ In Pot%/ Pre Flop Raise%/Aggression Factor%) is 8.8/6.8/1.5
Those are very nitty rock numbers - which is exactly what I want. Those are great numbers IMHO.

Statistically I am winning about 47% of showdowns. Although at the end of every session of 12 tabling I check my stats on the table at poker stars and usually I am winning 70% of showdowns.

A good player wins at least 50% of showdowns.

So after 5000 hands - great numbers in poker tracker.

I have played 5 sessions of about an hour each. Yesterday was my first losing session - I lost $11.

The other 4 sessions I was winning about $30 per hour.

I look forward to posting more results in the coming days!

My Poker Weekend

This was a good weekend for poker.

I tested the new short stack strategy - in a couple ways - both ended in failure. I did play the two short stack strategies for well over 3000 hands.

One strategy was any two pairs and any Broadway from any position - all in pre-flop.

The other was any two pairs from any position - all in pre-flop.

The pairs and Broadway - I 6 tabled for two hours and won 48% of my showdowns. I ended up losing 4 buy-ins. If I had rakeback I may have either broke even or made a small profit.

The strategy of any two pairs was a total failure. I won 46% of my showdowns and lost 8 buy-ins.

So neither seemed to be profitable.

I will note that I earned a lot of FPP's and VPP's points with both strategies. The any two pairs was very easy to multi-table and I was playing up to 15 tables for a couple hours on that one.

15 tables was very intense!

Now....

After this short stack strategy - and losing a total of about $50 - I switched to my normal A game and hit the $25 NL. The goal was to play 6 tables at a time and try to earn 3 Big Bets (3BB) per hour per table.

I played for an hour and earned 6BB per hour per table. I literally was crushing the game and destroying the ranges of the other players.

I played another hour and repeated the same crushing game.

Wow.

I decided to play 9 tables. I played for two hours and once again just crushed the game.

All in all I earned $75 over 4 hours of $25 NL - playing 2 hours of 6 tabling and 2 hours of 9 tabling.

I played the following 20 Hands pre-flop:

EP

1010 - AA
AKs, AKo
AQs, AJs
KQs

MP - The Above Plus:

AQo, AJo
KJs

LP - The Above Plus:

A10s, A9s
KQo, K10s

My stats for all 4 hours of playing was:

Won At Showdown - 70% (WOW)
Played 9% of the time

Soooo....pretty amazing. I plan to continue playing 6 to 9 tables at $25NL Full Ring to see if this is a fluke or if I finally found the right strategy to win consistently - at least at $25NL.

I earned 6 Big Bets per hour per table for all four hours. That is twice what I was shooting for.

I played Fast Tables - which were averaging 80-100 hands per hour per table. So I played around 3000 hands.

So basically I was making $18 per hour at 6 tables and $27 per hour at 9 tables. Not bad at all for $25 NL.

So - I am over 1/2 way to Silver VIP on Pokerstars and still have 19 more days in the month to go.

I should make Silver VIP this month. If I get really lucky and can move up to $50NL I may even make Gold VIP. WooHoo!

9 Tabled Full Ring $10NL for 3 1/2 Hours

Well I have noticed lately a lot of short stacker's at the tables - all limits. These are players with less than 20 BB. Last night I decided to test the short stack theory - again.

What I noticed from watching these short stacker's the past few days or so is they push pre-flop with any two pair, decent Broadway, and suited connectors.

I did not fine tune my strategy last night, but was sort of developing it as I went. After 1500+ hands I know I need to figure out an ideal Pre-Flop All In range.

Basically I went all in around 120 times - winning 47% of the time. That is not good enough to win.

I also won about 200 hands without going to showdown.

Overall I lost about $8. Assuming my normal play would normally result in a winning session of + $12 you could then say I lost $20.

But let's stick with the losing of $8. That equals 4 buy-ins of $2.

So basically with my push range last night, which wasn't exactly consistent, I was at best break even.

Considering rakeback or FPP points - break even can be profitable.

I think had I tightened up my push ranges and considered positions more, I could have broken even or made a profit.

The goal is to win at least 3 Big Bets per hour per table on average.

The trick is to push enough that people call you with a loose range of cards. I cannot push with just premium hands (AA-JJ, AK, KQ) because people would figure that out and all I would get would be the blinds or beaten by a better pair.

Yet I need to keep my pushing range good enough to win over 50% of showdowns.

This is a difficult formula.

Last night I played 11% of starting hands. That turned out to be too loose. Or perhaps I need to pay more attention to what position I am pushing and what cards in that position. I also need to pay attention to other people's open bet ranges.

In my strategy there is no betting on the flop - or rarely. I am getting it all in on the pre-flop.

The theory is if I can establish a very simple push fold pre-flop strategy, then I can multi-table like a mad man. 20+ tables is not impossible.

I will be involved in about half the number of hands I would if I were playing my normal game - but the rake will be maxed out each time. I should make more FPP's with this strategy and if I were getting rakeback, I would earn more rakeback.

The big trick is winning over 50% of showdowns.

I also established another rule - once I have 50% profits at a table - I leave the table. In other words If my buy-in was $2 and I get to $3 - I leave the table.

This helps a lot since it gives me another way to come out in the positive besides winning over 50% of showdowns. Ideally I can win uncontested pots and leave enough tables with 50% profits that will overcome a less than 50% showdown result.

This is definitely a work in progress.

As soon as I strictly define my push ranges and see positive results over maybe 5000 hands or so - I will move up to the next level - $25NL

Off the top of my head I am thinking of the following push ranges:

Early Position

AA-1010, AK, AQ, KQ

Middle Position

77-99, A8 suited+, A10 off-suited+

Late Position

44-66
Suited: 910, J10, QJ, K10, KJ

The basic rules are

1. Open push with these cards in those positions. Roll ever Limpers .
In order to push over the top of another player - they need to be in my position or later. Otherwise I need to have cards in their position.

Example A - An early position player puts in 3 bets. I am in middle position. To push over the top I need cards in my Early Position range.

Example B - A middle position player opens with 3 bets. I am also in middle position with pushing cards - I can push all in here.

2. Pushing over open raises is ok. Pushing after someone else re-raises or they have pushed - not so OK. You need premium cards in there position range to push or call. Use best judgment without AA or KK.

I'll test this new strategy tonight at the 10NL tables.

Playing Cash Tables Again

I decided to starting playing cash games again. I am playing $25 NL FR. I have about 20 Buy-Ins - much lower than my 50 minimum standard - but I just couldn't stand to grind $10NL - seems like a waste of time.

I have only played about 3 hours of 6 tabling and I broke even.

I plan to try 9 tabling.

My goal is to make 3 Big Bets per hour per table. Big bet at $25 NL is $0.50 cents. So that is $1.50 per table per hour. 9 Tabling should average to about $13.50 per hour.

As soon as I hit $2500 I will then go to $50 NL.

I am seriously considering moving to Full Tilt Poker if I can consistently make money at the cash tables. The 27% rakeback equals about 1/3 of my total profit. That means I am missing out on a 33% increase in profit.

I know pokerstars has a great VIP program, but cash is king. The FTP rakeback could easily lessen the impact of my variance.

Well, I will update how the cash tables experiment goes.

Played $100NL Last Night - 5 Tabled

I took a look at my VPP status last night on Poker Stars. It was the last day of the month and I was short 286 VPP's for Silver VPP status. I had earned 1000 VPP's so far.

I thought to myself - maybe I could try to earn those points today. Last time I earned Silver VPP I was in the same circumstance - about 280 points short. Except last time I had 3 days to do it.

I did some math and figured if I 5 tabled $100NL Full Ring - I should be able to earn around 70 VPP's an hour. So I could play 4 hours and try to just break even.

So I did.

Well I started to at least.

After an hour I was up $100 and decided I would rather keep the $100 than risk losing it and making Silver VPP.

LOL.

See what variance does to ya!

Plus I did not really want to sit with my entire bankroll for another 3 hours. Sorry - but my risk was too great there just to make silver VPP.

But I played VERY TAG. I only played 8% of hands - basically AA-JJ and AK. If there were 2-3 limpers and I was in late position with As I would limp in too and try to catch a flush.

I won 2-3 very big pots with pocket AA and pocket KK. I won a good pot when I caught my flush on the turn. I also lost 1-2 small-medium pots when I chased with A10.

Overall it seemed a great strategy to wait for premium hands and play aggressively.

So my bankroll now sits at a nice $500.

I may try playing $10NL Full Ring cash games tonight - 6 tabling. Same strategy - only play premium hands. Limp in with As in late position with 2 + limpers in front of me. The discipline is to be careful with dangerous flops and resistance. So if I have pocket KK and an A comes on the flop - I will CB 1/2- full pot and if I meet resistance I have to fold. If that CB gets called - I will fire a second barrel on the turn. If that gets called - I will check the River and fold to a bet. At any point I get raised - I will fold.

I also have to be careful with trip setters. Top or Over pair is still just a one pair strength hand. Premium pocket pairs can be beat with the average winning hand in poker - 2 pairs. Trip setters love playing against premium pockets. And of course dangerous boards such as two suited boards or any two broadway or straight potentials - I have to tread very carefully.

But I definitely was playing scared at $100NL. I won't be nearly as scared at $10NL. I will have 50 Buy-Ins compared with 5 Buy-Ins. LOL - big difference.

Day 2 of Steps Grind

Well last night I played some SnG's - I tried several 18 man 6-Max $6.60 and $5.50 turbos. I also played a regular $5.50 9-man. All but one ended in defeat. Sigh. The one ITM was only third place.

I just don't understand why I am losing all of a sudden.

I then decided to play some heads up matches - 3 $21 and 1 $10.50 - lost them all. Holy Moses!

Terrible night.

Lately I have just been getting outplayed. Pretty sad at the micro limits too.

Perhaps I am the fish and not the shark.

Well I reloaded my poker account and now it sits back at $400.

I still want to grind some Step 4 tickets. I want to play some $215 MTT's. Not sure why - considering my luck lately. But as I tell my wife, it is our little lottery.

The CA lottery is a crapshoot. So is playing the $215 MTT's on pokerstars. But someone has to win and you can only win by playing.

So poker is my form of the lottery - maybe, just maybe I will win big one day. It is a heck of a lot more fun than buying a lottery ticket. At least in the poker lottery you have more control and it is not just relying on luck.

Well any ways - I will figure out tonight what I will be playing. I could go back to the $11 SnG or I could continue trying my luck at the $5.50's.

Day 1 of the Step Tournament Grind

Yesterday was day 1 on my new poker goals of grinding the Step Tournaments.

If you read the previous post, I am grinding $5.50 & $11 SitNGo's and using the profits to pay for a total of 180 Step 1 Tournaments.

Yesterday I played 8 $5.50 SNG's. Two sets of 4.

The first set I lost three and got third place in one. That was a bad set.

I was a little taken back with the level of aggression at this buy-in level. These guys are very aggressive. I was also surprised that we hit the $100/$200 level and still have 5-6 players left.

Several times I called someone's stupid all in bet and lost. The pattern is if there was heavy betting preflop and they hit top pair good or best kicker - they went all in. Or they hit the nuts and over bet by going all-in to confuse you.

Either way - I was calling these dumb bets and losing with second best pair.

I had to adjust a little to that.

All I can figure is these $5.50 buy-in SNG's must be profitable for grinders and so good players are playing? But what is more confusing is I only noticed 1 player in only 1 of the two sets that was at more than one table.

So apparently - non of the players were multi-tabling!

The good news is I can win against aggressive players - I just need to adjust my calling ranges.

Any ways - the second set of four I won 3 out of 4. Two first places and one second.

Overall I made a $20 profit from all 8 tournaments - or about 45% ROI. Not too bad!

I look forward to playing some more at this $5.50 buy in level.

My bankroll started last night at $268 and ended at $288.

In order to move back up to the $11 buy-in I need my bankroll to get up to around $385.

So another $100 and I can start playing that level again.

The question is do I wait for the $11 level or do I start playing the Step 1 tournaments.

Time will tell.

I'll see how I do at the $5.50 level. It may take no time at all.

New Poker Goals

So instead of grinding out the SnG's for monthly income, I decided to put that on pause. I will come back to that later.

New goals are to still grind the SnG's for cash, but then to use the profits to grind the Step Tournaments.

I did some estimations and I figure for around $1350 I could win at least 1 Step 6 tournament package. If I win a step 6 tournament package then it would be a paid vacation for me and the wife to some other country - China, Philippines, Bahamas, Australia, etc.

I've been pretty successful with the step tournaments.

Here are my assumptions:

I should be able to take first or second place at a step 6 tournament 10% of the time. The other attempts at a step 6 tournament would result in other prizes - or losses - but not the big prize.

That means I need 10 Step 6 tournament tickets in order to win at least 1 big prize.

Here are the percentages I believe I can win at each of the step levels:

Step 1 - 75% = 180 Tickets needed for 134 Step 3 Tickets
Step 2 - 75% = 134 Tickets needed for 100 Step 3 Tickets
Step 3 - 50% = 100 Tickets Needed for 400 Step 4 Tickets
Step 4 - 50% = 50Tickets Needed for 100 Step 5 Tickets
Step 5 - 20% = 25Tickets Needed for 5 Step 6 Tickets
Step 6 - 20% = 5 Tickets Needed for 1 Big Prize

So that means I need to play 180 Step 1 tournaments to eventually win 1 Step 6 prize package.

$7.5 X 180 = $1350

If I give myself 6 months to win a step 6 prize, that means I need to play 494 step tournaments.

6 months equals 26 weeks - so that is 19 Step tournaments a week.

That is actually quite a lot!

Now grinding out SitNGo's is what is going to pay for the step tournaments. So I don't need to pay for all 494 step tournaments - just the original 180 step 1 tournaments.

I will dived the 180 Step tournaments equally among the 26 weeks - which means I need to pay for 7 Step 1 tournaments a week - which equals $52.50.

I will be playing both $5.50 & $11 SnG's - depending on how my variance is going. So lets assume I play just $11 SnG's and if I end up playing more $5.50's then it will take longer or I will need to play more at a time.

Assume a profit of 12% for $11 SitNGo's. That means I make on average $1.32 per game played.

So I need to divide $52.50 by $1.32 = ~40 tournaments a week.

I would have to play 40 $11 tournaments a week plus about 20 Step Tournaments a week.

That is 60 tournaments a week or 12 per day (playing 5 days a week).

That is theoretically possible - assuming I can maintain a 12% ROI and play 2 hour a day 5 days a week.

So in reality it may take 8-10 months to truly win one step 6 tournament package.

But I could also do better at the steps than I plan and win a step 6 even sooner than planned.

The idea is to save up 10 tickets at each step before trying that step level.

For example - once I get 10 Step 2 tickets, then I will grind the step 2 tournaments.

An additional caveat. This could cause this grind to take even longer.

Whenever I have the chance to play the Sunday Million on Poker Stars - I will use a step 4 ticket to do so.

Potentially that is once a week.

So based on my estimates, one in every 4 step 1 tickets will result in a step 4 ticket.

I am playing 20 Step tournaments a week - that means I will earn about five step 4 tournament tickets per week.

So this is acceptable.

The idea is one day I may get good enough to go deep in the Sunday Millions and win some serious cash.

In one year I think I may be able to win $5000 at least once in the Sunday Million and one Step 6 Big Prize.

So that is the goals.!

I Won A Step 4 Ticket on Poker Stars

It has been a rough couple of weeks in poker. I went on a bad run and my bankroll is down to $275. That is a big loss of 50%. I just couldn't win. I did play about 12 $22 Buy In SNG's - losing all of them. I also lost most of the $11 SNG's I played.

So I took a week off.

Still losing - but this time around I didn't play any of my normal SNG. I played satellites to the Sunday Million and some big field tournaments. Mostly I broke even.

I did manage to convert my FPP's into a Step 4 tournment ticket. I had about 2000 FPP's and flip flopped back and fourth until I finally won a step 3 tournament - on my last 500 FPP's.

All weekend I tried to play the cash satellites to the Sunday Million. My plan wasn't to actually play the Sunday Million - but to trade the ticket in for cash. My bankroll needs a stimulus shot.

But in the end, I got my Sunday Million ticket but cannot cash it in. The step 4 ticket can not be traded in for cash or Tournament dollars. It is only good for playing a step 4 tournament or any $215 level tournament.

So - looks like I will be playing the Sunday Million soon!

I must say the Step tournaments is a very easy way to convert FPP's into $215 buy in tickets. I was able to do it with 2000 FPP's - which equals 4 tries.

There are other tournaments besides the Sunday Million I can play. I may look into that as the Sunday Million is sort of a crap shoot. But, assuming I can start winning again in my SNG grind - I will be able to play the Sunday Million at least once a month - perhaps more.

I did play 3 or 4 Sunday Million satellites that I came close to winning. The $8.80 double shootout turbo - 6 max. If you make it to the final table - top 5 places is ITM. Only the 6th place on the final table gets nothing.

I made it ITM at least twice. Both times I made it to 4th or better and made $20. I think once I made it to heads up (same pay - $20). I almost won that one - but lost to a coin flip - which is common with heads up matches where the blinds are so high.

I think I started the weekend out with $297 and ended up at a loss with $275. But I did play a lot of poker - so overall I am okay with that. Plus though I lost about $25 I also won a $215 step 4 tournament ticket. So really I am ahead all considered.

I want to get back to my SNG grind this week. I did not make Silver VIP at poker stars due to taking time off. Preserving my bankroll is more important than making Silver VIP.

But now I must decide whether to play the $11 SNG or step down to the $5.50 SNG. At $11 I have about 25 Buy-Ins. 25 Buy-Ins is the recommended bankroll for SnG's. But I have experienced losing streaks of 21/24 tournaments. Lose 7 win 1. Repeat. Repeat. Bam - not hard to be down almost 20 Buy-Ins. I can do that and still have a small positive ROI. Of course that positive ROI is based on not having that Lose 7 Win 1 pattern over a hundred tournaments.

The first 100 tournaments I played I had 7 in the row losses 2-3 times. I had a couple 7 in the row wins too - which balanced it out.

Lately though - it has been loss after loss with a win in between just to mix it up. I still have not lost more than 7 tournaments in a row.....yet.

So with $5.50 I will have 50 Buy-Ins. That seems to be a much preferred bankroll for my luck lately.

So I will probably step down to the $5.50 SnG until my luck changes.

$11 STT SNG Campaign

Well things could be better. I am up to 150 tournaments and my ROI is down to 4%! Holy Moses.

Not sure why but I have been losing 3/4 tournaments. Lately that one ITM has been 3rd mostly and sometimes second. My 2nd place ITM is now higher than my 1st place. Sheesh!

Well last night I played 4 $11 tournaments. I placed 3rd in one and out of the money in the other 3. I really need to rethink my 5-6 handed strategy. I seem to get taken out in 4-6 place.

I did play two $22 heads up matches. I won both and ended the day profitable. I think I made $12.

I did the same thing yesterday. After losing overall in my $11 SNG's I played a few $11 & $22 heads up matches and ended ahead by $10 for the day.

I seem to do well in Heads up matches. Mostly though I use them to chase my losses (usually successfully). I don't know how successful I would be at them long term. Would be a nice campaign one day.

Well as bad as my ROI is with the $11 SNG tournaments, it only takes a profit of say $120 to be back in the 12% ROI. Really I have just been on a downswing. I have heard people playing 150 tournaments in a month and ending up in the negative. It happens.

This is why I like to have a 50 Buy-In bankroll.

Ironically, my bankroll has more than doubled this month - but of course not due to my $11 SnG campaign. I made $200 on a $22 Buy-In 27 Man MTT and I won several other $22 Buy-In SnG's.

Had I stuck just to my $11 tournaments my bankroll would sit a a palsy $250 instead of $555.

But I will continue my $11 campaign until I hit the 12% ROI at least. I need to know I can beat the $11 before I move up.

I also cannot really move up until I hit 50 Buy-Ins for the next level.

Now I can choose to move up to the $16's instead of the $22's. But for some reason I prefer to jump straight to the $22's. I have always played well at the $22's and I have never played the $16's much.

Of course I also have a desire to play MTT's - but my complaint is they do not fill up as fast and the ITM is less. I have always done very well at the 27 man tournaments.

There are really two main goals with my $11 campaign.

1. I need to know I can beat the game at some level! I have played over 5 years and have no idea if I really am beating any particular style of play or level.

2. Assuming I can beat the level with an ROI in the positive over several hundred games, I need to figure out how profitable they are. I want to make at least $15 an hour. I need to know how much I make per game on average and how many games I can play at once and still maintain at least $15 an hour.

These two goals requires hundreds of tournaments to get any dependable statistics. Preferably probably 2000 tournaments would suffice.

I am at 150 so far. That really only gives me a 12% reliability factor. Hardly dependable.

Although after playing with the statistics after 150 tournaments I can see where certain things are important. I have always been a numbers guy.

I used to keep track of every cent when I was a food server. I had my averages down for every table, every day of the week, every month. I knew how much I made as a food server over the long haul. As you may know, a food servers income is 90% tips - which fluctuate daily.

So calculating statistics in poker comes second nature for me.

I have noticed that even a 1% ITM can greatly effect your overall ROI after hundreds of games. Additionally, your ROI can change dramatically with the same ITM% if you win more 1st places or second places than third places.

For example - After 150 tournaments my average winnings $ for an ITM is higher than average. To get the average winning $ you take the total prize pool and divide it by the places it pays. For a $11 STT you have $90 in prize money divided by 3 paying places = $30 average. Generally speaking a winning player will average at least $30 per ITM. You win some third places, more seconds, and hopefully even more 1sts. But they all average out to about equal.

For a $11 STT the average is 33% of the prize pool. So far I am averaging 36% or $32.40 per ITM. That number is important because it can increase or decrease your ROI even with the same ITM %.

Basically a key is you can increase your ROI by either having a higher ITM % or by having a higher prize pool percentage through winning more 1st and 2nd's.

Lately my prize percentage has been going down. My Target ITM% is 40%. My target ITM is:

1st = 45%
2nd = 35%
3rd = 20%

This means that for 100 tournaments, I will place ITM in 40 of them. Of those 40:

1st = 18 = $810
2nd = 14 = $378
3rd = 8 = $144

Total Prize = $1332
Total Cost = $11 X 100 = $1100

Profit = $232
ROI = $232 / 1100 = 21%

What is interesting is if you increased your ITM from 40% to 50% but only placed 3rd in all 50 tournaments, you would make less money and your ROI would be less.

If you placed in 3rd place in 50 out of 100 tournaments:

3rd - 50 = $900

Total Prize = $900
Total Cost = $1100

Profit = $200
ROI = 18%

So those 1st and 2nd place finishes really make a huge difference.

Another FPP Trading Option

I realized there is another great option for the Poker Stars FPP's. You can trade 500 FPP's for a $7.50 Step 1 tournament ticket. That comes to $0.015 per FPP. That is about the same rate as trading in 13500 for a Sunday Million ticket. But with Step tournaments they are all 9 Man tournaments. And what is even better is they pay top 2-4 spots. I believe for the Step 1 you need to be in the top 2. Top two get Step 2 tickets.

Then once you have made it to the step 2 tournament, first two places get Step 3 tickets; 3rd place gets a Step 3 ticket; and 4th place gets a step 2 ticket.

It offer excellent chances of eventually winning a step 3 tournament. You can either win a ticket to the previous step, the current step, or the next step. If you win the first or second in a step 3 tournament, you get a step 4 ticket which can be traded in for any $215 tournament - which includes the Sunday Million.

For 13500 FPP's you might be better off playing the Step 1 tournaments. You get 27 Step 1 tickets to try for a Sunday Million Step 4 ticket. I believe you will be able to win a lot more than one Step 4 ticket. The only Sunday Million I played I won the ticket through a step 3 tournament.

The rakeback is the same, but Step tournaments offer much greater odds.

And what is even better is you don't have to trade in all your step 4 tickets. You can try to win a step 6 tournament and win a $13500 live game package. That might be worth grinding out! Imagine parlaying your FPP's into a poker tournament in Manilla or Macauu or Sydney...even the big one in Vegas.

Trading Poker Stars FPP's for a $215 Sunday Million Ticket

I did some quick investigating on what to use my FPP's for. Keep in mind Poker Stars doesn't have a cash rakeback, but it is rumored that their VIP program rivals most rakebacks.

I must say I agree. For 13,500 FPP's you can purchase a Sunday Million Ticket, which is worth $215.

Divide $200 by 13500 and you are receiving $.0159 for each FPP.

I earn my FPP's currently by grinding STT SitNGo's. These numbers change based on your VIP status because you earn FPP's faster if you are Silver or Gold or Platinum.

Assuming I am playing the $11 SitNGos - 90 a week, I earn about 5640 FPP's a month. If I save them up and trade them for a direct entry ticket into the Sunday Million, I am getting about 24.8% rakeback.

The numbers are like this. I play 360 tournaments a month and earn Gold VIP. This is aggressive as I need to play 90 tournaments a week. That is 18 tables a day 5 days a week. Either I 9 table for two hours a day, 6 table for 3 hours a day, or play 6 days a week and sneak in 15 tables a day.

But I end up earning 15.66 Fpp's for each $11 tournament. At $.0159 per FPP X 15.66 = $.248994 rakeback per tournament. For Rakeback percentage you divide $0.248994 by the $1 entry fee. That is a simple calculation of almost a 25% rakeback.

My cash rakeback at Full Tilt Poker (FTP) is 27% - so that is darn close.

If I play the same amount of tournaments, 90 a week, but at the $22 level, I end up earning almost a 30% rakeback by trading in for the $215 Sunday Million Ticket.

Needless to say, that is a good rakeback.

Of course the deal can be even sweeter if you gamble with those Fpp's and trade them in for a satellite tournament for the Sunday Million. I haven't done those numbers, but they might be even better.

However, I prefer not to try to gamble into the Sunday Million. No need to get greedy and chance missing the tournament because you lost all the satellites. 25-30% rakeback is good enough for me.

And then imagine if you place ITM in one of those Sunday Millions - which is inevitable. I think a good player will place ITM in the Sunday Million 1/3 of the time. At the $11 level I can play the Sunday million 6 times a year, roughly every other month. At the $22 level I can play once a month.

ITM is not much - around $220 - basically getting your money back. But that is cash. That would be at least turning your FPP's into a cash rakeback.

But if you go deeper into the tournament, you could double the Rakeback into $530 cash or much much more.

So I am happy to discover this opportunity.

I currently have about 1900 FPP's. I have a chance of making Silver VIP this month (September). I have about 50% of the needed VIP points so far and the month is a couple days away from half over. If I stay on track I can make it and get an FPP multiplier.

The other alternative is you can use 500FPP's to play a 27 man sitngo. First place gets a ticket to the sunday million. Or I think it is around 2000 FPP's to play a 9 man Sit N Go for a Sunday Million.

It definitely is worth considering. I can play 6-7 tournaments and if I place 1st in one, I break even. If I win more than one, I am doubling my Sunday Million tickets. But, it is also easy to play 7 tournaments and not get the needed first place.

For STT SNG's, I place ITM 35-40% of the time. Of those that are ITM, first place is around 35%. So running those numbers I will, on average, win a first place less than 1 times out of 7.

I probably would be better off grinding the 27 Man 500 FPP satellites to the Sunday Million. I would have 27 tries to win first. I don't have statistics on the 27 man MTT's. So I don't know what my averages are. I suppose I would get those averages by grinding them for Sunday Million Satellites. All I know is in the last 5 years I have only won 1 of those Sunday Million Satellites.

I actually have a good record of ITM for 27 Man MTT's - but maybe 5-6 first places overall. But those were cash tournaments - not satellites.

I have played 140 Tournaments So Far

I logged 140 tournaments in my Sit N Go grind so far. These are all $11 STT. It has been a ride. At 100 tournaments my ROI was about 24%. At 140 it is now at 8%. Quite a difference.
I have just been losing a lot more. My overall ITM is 37%, but if I looked at the last 40 tournaments I imagine it would be more like 20%.

This is what they call variance.

I remember distinctly having 6 tables opened and my bankroll was at $377. I really thought I was going to probably have a losing session. Then somehow I won 3 of those 6. One of those 3 was actually a $22 STT. I did not log that in my tournament sheet because I am strictly tracking my ROI for $11 STT, but that $90 first place really helped the bankroll.

Now the bankroll sits at $522. Yesterday it sat at $555 but then I had a losing session.

Out of these 140 tournaments my bankroll highs and lows were $250 / $602.

I want to break the $700 barrier. In order for that to happen I just need a couple good sessions.

Looks like I will hit 200 tournaments by the end of the week. I am not sure how many of these I will play before moving to the $22's. For certain I want to have 50 buy-ins at the $22's which equals $1100.

While my ROI is not what I want it to be and my ITM has slipped to 37%, I must say that at least after 140 tournaments I am still ahead. That still speaks volumes.

I certainly am not crushing the $11 STT SitNGo's. I am dangerously close to breaking even. I cannot leave the $11 level until I know I am beating it. I need to be ITM 40% and average profit of $2.25 per tournament. Of course some will say that is unlikely. It would require a 20% ROI. But I'll keep playing until I at least get a 15% ROI. Heck if I get to 500 tournaments with a 12% ROI I think I will accept that as my correct average.

Some good news I discovered is I can make Gold VIP at Poker Stars by 9 tabling 10 hours a week. Which I think breaks down to about 90 tournaments a week.

Once I move to the $22 I can 9 table 10 hours a week and make platinum VIP.

At the Gold VIP that is around 5640 FPP's a month and at Platinum it is 13500 FPP's. Not sure what I will do with those FPP's, but I do think I will save them up for a while. Of course I want to parlay them into satellite tournaments to the Sunday Million.

$11 STT SitNGo Campaign Update

Last night I successfully 9-Tabled $11 STT SitNGo's. I placed ITM in 5 out of 9.

I am going to continue playing the $11 Single Table Tournament Sit N Go's until I am confident my ROI and Hourly Rate is accurate for this level.


My Stats so far.

Let's see, I think this is Week 3 of the $11 Campaign SitNGo's.

Starting Bankrol 3 weeks ago = $240
Bankroll As of Yesterday = $605

** Some of the $605 came from winning other tournament types, such as the $200 profit from a 27-man sitngo that I took first in.

91 $11 SitNGo Tournaments
37 ITM

41% ITM
24% ROI

1st = 46%
2nd = 35%
3rd = 19%
X = 59%

Total Profit from ONLY the 91 $11 Sitngo's = $241

Profit per game = $2.65

9 Tabling hourly rate = $23.85

Poker Grind Status Update

I played about 30 $11 SitNGo's over memorial day weekend. In total I have now played 82 SitNGo's.

When I started this SitNGo Grind about 2 weeks ago my bankroll was $240. Now my bankroll is $585.


*** As a side note, I have played a few tournaments outside of the $11 SitNGo's. These tournaments have both added and taken away from my bankroll. Overall I have added $140 to my bankroll in addition to playing the $11 SitNGo's. I specifically won a 27-Man $22 MTT in First place that added $200 in winnings. However, nothing is included in the results below except the $11 SitNGo's. I want to keep the $11 SitNGo's tracking pure so I know how profitable I am at this particular level.

My bankroll is back to where I started about 6 months ago.

Here are the stats for my $11 SitNGo Grind:

I am now playing 6 tables at a time. Soon I will be playing 9 tables at a time.

Profit Per Hour:
6 Tables = $15 Per Hour
9 Tables = $ 22.50

Winnings								Buy-In	Profits
$1,107								$902	$205

ROI		Profit Per Game
22.73%		$2.50

GAME

1ST

2ND

3RD

X

TOTAL	16	11	5	50
ITM	32		Place	Prize $	Total		Winnings	Buy-In	Profits
GAMES	82		16	$45	$720		$1,107	$902	$205
			11	$27	$297
ITM%	39%		5	$18	$90
					$1,107
1ST%	50%
2ND%	34%		Games	Cost	Total		ROI		Profit Per Game
3RD%	16%		82	$11	$902		22.73%		$2.50
X%	61%